This could be another very hot summer. Here's what that means.

The United States could experience a new crisis this summer, according to a new study from the National Weather Service (NWS). And that could mean more extreme weather events, as well as increased health concerns.

The NWS outlook, released this month, reveals that many parts of the United States, including New England and the Southwest, will likely experience warmer than average temperatures from June to August. In recent years, warmer summer temperatures have been caused by climate change and, in some cases, the arrival of a climatic phenomenon known as La Niña, which contributes to drier conditions in parts of the United States.

According to the Weather Channelit is possible that this summer will be one of the hottest on record, addition to existing milestones.

A hotter summer could have serious environmental consequences, including a higher risk of drought, hurricanes and wildfires in some areas. Additionally, it could pose more risks to people's health, with heat-related deaths including those linked to cardiovascular diseases – increasing in the United States over the past decade.

Generally speaking, hotter summers have caused people to take more precautions about the activities they engage in, become more dependent on resources such as air conditioning, and remain on guard against weather events. extremes affecting their water supplies and resources. air quality.

This summer should be no different, that's why the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the CDC recently rolled out tools aimed at predicting extreme heatwaves this summer, with the goal of alerting people to these events so they can better prepare.

The reasons why this summer could be so hot

Climate change is a major factor overall warming that the Earth is experiencing – including hotter summers, experts say. “The obvious main player is greenhouse gases, which produce long-term emissions. climate change” William Boos, associate professor of earth and planetary sciences at UC Berkeley, told Vox.

As a Washington Post analysis reveals in 2022the average summer temperature from 2017 to 2021 was 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average summer temperature in the United States from 1971 to 2000, an increase that coincided with record annual temperatures across the country. last years. The outlook for this year could well make this summer a continuation of this trend.

The La Niña weather phenomenon could also contribute to higher heat levels this year if it occurs in the coming months. La Niña is an atmospheric phenomenon involving strong winds that cause cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Cold water changes the course of high-altitude air currents called jet streams, which contribute to weather changes.

Although La Niña can cause a “cooling of global temperatures…it causes changes in wind patterns that can make some areas hotter than normal in summer,” says University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mann.

In the United States, the areas most likely to experience increased temperatures due to La Niña tend to be located in the West and South, and this should also be the case this time.

Heat could lead to more droughts, wildfires and hurricanes

Higher temperatures in summer can directly contribute to the proliferation of droughts because heat increases water evaporation and plant moisture loss. Droughts often reduce water supplies for humans and animals and also impact the ecosystems of flora and fauna that live in water bodies. According to the National Weather Service, The Southwest, part of the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii are some of the regions susceptible to drought this coming summer.

National Weather Service

A hotter, drier summer season can also increase the risk of wildfires in certain areas because it means the ground is drier and the area is more likely to catch fire. When the temperature is warmer, the frequency of lightning may also be higher, which can start more forest fires.

According to the projections of National Interagency Coordination Center, which released outlooks through July, the Southwest, Mountain West and Hawaii are also areas that are poised to experience greater risk of forest fire this summer. California, meanwhile, may have a reduced risk compared to previous years, in part because of rainfall was recorded this year.

National Interagency Coordination Center

In recent years, wildfires have disrupted nearby communities, damaging and displacing homes, while also affecting people hundreds of miles away. Wildfires in Maui last year – which were triggered in part by persistent drought – killed around 100 people, and many of those who lost their homes have not yet found a new one. A major wave of forest fires in Canada It also affected large swaths of the United States as smoke spread and reduced air quality.

(Related: How Maui wildfires became so apocalyptic)

Higher temperatures could also lead to a more intense hurricane season, according to to a group of climate scientists from the University of Pennsylvania directed by Mann. In an analysis released this week, they noted that this Atlantic season could feature the most named hurricanes on record. partly due to warmer ocean temperatures. Scientists estimate there could be between 27 and 39 named tropical storms, or about twice as many hurricanes as there are in a standard season.

Since evaporation increases when it is warmer, hurricanes can in these circumstances draw more moisture from the oceans, resulting in a higher frequency of more aggressive storms.

In general, higher temperatures also raise concerns about the health problems and deaths people might experience due to conditions such as heatstroke. As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention points outCities like St. Louis and Philadelphia have seen increased death rates during heat waves in the past, and hospitals tend to see increased admissions related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases during these periods.

Since people's hearts are put under greater strain in hot weather, this places additional stress on those facing pre-existing health conditions as well as vulnerable groups such as the young, the elderly and the elderly. pregnant people. Additionally, the standard mechanism used to cool down – sweating – may be insufficient when it is particularly hot and especially when there is high humidity.

“In an average year in the United States, heat kills more people than any other type of extreme weather,” said Kristina Dahl, a senior climatologist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. previously told Scientific American.